Monday, October 4, 2010

Chance for good ties with Phnom Penh if we want[: Thailand

Problems are at senior levels, but can be overcome if calm, wise heads prevail

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva meets his Cambodian counterpart Hun Sen in Brussels this week, bilateral relations are expected to get another boost. The question is how long the new-found friendliness can be maintained. Ties between both countries have been characteristically on and off, and we are obviously enjoying an "on" period.

Credit where it's due. The issue of Thaksin Shinawatra ended up being tackled admirably by the Cambodians. And although the related matter of red-shirt leaders on the run could re-emerge any time to sour relations, Thaksin's removal (or resignation depending on what version of the story we believe) as Cambodia's honorary economic adviser has served as a good cushion.

"Unsettled" issues have more to do with the Thai side. Bangkok's opposition to the Preah Vihear Temple management plan could resurface again when the next Unesco meeting on the issue in Bahrain draws near. Pending border demarcation has not progressed because Thai domestic political pressure will continue to prevent Parliament from endorsing any plan any time soon.

Thailand has come up with some sort of a master plan to enhance bilateral ties, following the New York meeting. The plan encourages local civilian and military authorities as well as central government agencies to come up with activities that will boost ties with Cambodia. The activities include cultural events and sports events, media and academic exchanges and economic cooperation.

A lot of critics view the plan as a "repackaged" scheme that fails to address the actual reasons for the diplomatic breakdown that resulted in ambassadors being recalled. To be more specific, the critics point out that the rows had nothing, or very little, to do with local people on both sides of the border, who have had relatively good connections with one another.

Sports events or concerts might be useful if bilateral conflicts revolved around local people being estranged or, worse, hating each other. What has really happened is that even troops at the border frequently play soccer together, at least until recently. The Thai-Cambodian diplomatic problem is a high-level one, and thus must be tackled from the top down.

And this is not a conflict inflamed by the media as Abhisit and Hun Sen seemed to suggest. Newspapers only quoted what the two of them had had to say, playing catch-up with the changing moods of the national leaders. All both have to do is say nice words and avoid name-calling.

The two leaders' eye-to-eye talks are a good start. As Hun Sen told local reporters, the bilateral atmosphere brightened almost immediately after New York. Abhisit has been equally positive, as seen in the Foreign Ministry's promptly mapped-out master plan, although it seemed misguided and smelled like old wine in a new bottle.

Abhisit can't simply fight diplomatic crises on too many fronts. When he comes back, it's likely that the Victor Bout issue, which has Thailand torn between the United States and Russia, will come to the fore once again. In regard to the problems with Saudi Arabia, there has been a reprieve following the decision by a senior police officer implicated in the 1990 kidnapping and murder of a high-profile Saudi businessman not accept a promotion. It has really been a close call with the Saudis, with the handling of Hajj visa applications almost grinding to a halt.

What Thailand and Cambodia really need to do is take a serious look at their conflict and see how lucky they are that it does not present a sticky dilemma like the Viktor Bout controversy and the Pol Lt-General Somkid Boonthanom case. After all, the Preah Vihear Temple is a place, not a person, which takes away moral or humanitarian complications. Whereas the Victor Bout and Somkid issues force Thailand to play rear-guard diplomacy, Bangkok and Phnom Penh can actually make mutual gains from Preah Vihear. All it takes is maturity and calm egos.

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